Risk of predation reflects variation in the reproductive strategy of a dominant forage fish in mangrove tidal tributaries.

The role of predators in shaping prey life histories is a central theme in the ecological literature. However, the association between degree of predation risk and prey reproductive strategies has not been clearly established. We examined reproduction in the sailfin molly (Poecilia latipinna) from small tidal tributaries in a subtropical estuary. Our results revealed a gradient along which females produced many, small offspring at one extreme (mean = 42 offspring, 17 mg each) and fewer, larger offspring at the other (24 offspring, 29 mg each). Reproductive allotment ranged from 14.9-21.5% of maternal biomass. Based on our observation of divergent reproductive strategies, we experimentally tested the null hypothesis of no difference in predation risk among tributaries using a novel quantitative approach to estimate predation. We predicted greater risk in tributaries where mollies produced many, small offspring. Tethering confirmed increasing risk from 16.2 ± 5.3% SE to 54.7 ± 3.6% fish lost h(-1) across sites in agreement with observed variation in reproduction. Predation was unexpectedly higher than predicted at one of the four sites suggesting that additional factors (e.g., food) had influenced reproduction there. Our results provide insight into the well-studied concept of predator-mediated variation in prey reproduction by quantitatively demonstrating differential risk for mollies exhibiting divergent reproductive strategies. While the observed range of variation in reproductive traits was consistent with previous studies reporting strong predator effects, higher than expected predation in one case may suggest that the prey response does not follow a continuous trajectory of incremental change with increasing predation risk, but may be better defined as a threshold beyond which a significant shift in reproductive strategy occurs.