BACKGROUND: Predictive models have rarely been used in allergy research and practice. However, they might support physicians in advising patients. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to create predictive models for the incidence and persistence of allergic rhinitis (AR) during adolescence. METHODS: A prospective population-based cohort study was conducted starting at age 9 to 11 years. Potential risk factors for atopic diseases obtained at baseline in 2810 subjects were used to create predictive logistic regression models for the incidence and persistence of physician-diagnosed AR with current symptoms at age 15 to 18 years. RESULTS: Positive skin prick test responses to outdoor allergens at baseline were the most important determinant for both the incidence and persistence of AR until follow-up. For the incidence of AR, positive skin prick test responses to indoor allergens, parental history of asthma, female sex, and not having been breast-fed exclusively for 2 or more months were additional statistically significant independent risk factors. Depending on the number of risk factors present, the probability of the incidence of AR increased from 2% (no risk factors present) to 72% (full model; 95% CI, 58% to 85%). The probability of persistence of AR ranged from 33% (no risk factors present) to 83% (full model; 95% CI, 70% to 97%). CONCLUSION: The course of AR over puberty can be predicted using risk factors that are easy to determine in childhood. Sensitization to outdoor allergens seems to play a much greater role for disease development than sensitization to indoor allergens. This might help pediatricians in advising patients.
BACKGROUND: Predictive models have rarely been used in allergy research and practice. However, they might support physicians in advising patients. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to create predictive models for the incidence and persistence of allergic rhinitis (AR) during adolescence. METHODS: A prospective population-based cohort study was conducted starting at age 9 to 11 years. Potential risk factors for atopic diseases obtained at baseline in 2810 subjects were used to create predictive logistic regression models for the incidence and persistence of physician-diagnosed AR with current symptoms at age 15 to 18 years. RESULTS: Positive skin prick test responses to outdoor allergens at baseline were the most important determinant for both the incidence and persistence of AR until follow-up. For the incidence of AR, positive skin prick test responses to indoor allergens, parental history of asthma, female sex, and not having been breast-fed exclusively for 2 or more months were additional statistically significant independent risk factors. Depending on the number of risk factors present, the probability of the incidence of AR increased from 2% (no risk factors present) to 72% (full model; 95% CI, 58% to 85%). The probability of persistence of AR ranged from 33% (no risk factors present) to 83% (full model; 95% CI, 70% to 97%). CONCLUSION: The course of AR over puberty can be predicted using risk factors that are easy to determine in childhood. Sensitization to outdoor allergens seems to play a much greater role for disease development than sensitization to indoor allergens. This might help pediatricians in advising patients.
Authors: Sarah K Wise; Sandra Y Lin; Elina Toskala; Richard R Orlandi; Cezmi A Akdis; Jeremiah A Alt; Antoine Azar; Fuad M Baroody; Claus Bachert; G Walter Canonica; Thomas Chacko; Cemal Cingi; Giorgio Ciprandi; Jacquelynne Corey; Linda S Cox; Peter Socrates Creticos; Adnan Custovic; Cecelia Damask; Adam DeConde; John M DelGaudio; Charles S Ebert; Jean Anderson Eloy; Carrie E Flanagan; Wytske J Fokkens; Christine Franzese; Jan Gosepath; Ashleigh Halderman; Robert G Hamilton; Hans Jürgen Hoffman; Jens M Hohlfeld; Steven M Houser; Peter H Hwang; Cristoforo Incorvaia; Deborah Jarvis; Ayesha N Khalid; Maritta Kilpeläinen; Todd T Kingdom; Helene Krouse; Desiree Larenas-Linnemann; Adrienne M Laury; Stella E Lee; Joshua M Levy; Amber U Luong; Bradley F Marple; Edward D McCoul; K Christopher McMains; Erik Melén; James W Mims; Gianna Moscato; Joaquim Mullol; Harold S Nelson; Monica Patadia; Ruby Pawankar; Oliver Pfaar; Michael P Platt; William Reisacher; Carmen Rondón; Luke Rudmik; Matthew Ryan; Joaquin Sastre; Rodney J Schlosser; Russell A Settipane; Hemant P Sharma; Aziz Sheikh; Timothy L Smith; Pongsakorn Tantilipikorn; Jody R Tversky; Maria C Veling; De Yun Wang; Marit Westman; Magnus Wickman; Mark Zacharek Journal: Int Forum Allergy Rhinol Date: 2018-02 Impact factor: 3.858
Authors: Christopher D Codispoti; Grace K LeMasters; Linda Levin; Tiina Reponen; Patrick H Ryan; Jocelyn M Biagini Myers; Manuel Villareal; Jeff Burkle; Sherry Evans; James E Lockey; Gurjit K Khurana Hershey; David I Bernstein Journal: Ann Allergy Asthma Immunol Date: 2014-12-10 Impact factor: 6.347
Authors: Marit Westman; Christian Lupinek; Jean Bousquet; Niklas Andersson; Sandra Pahr; Alexandra Baar; Anna Bergström; Mats Holmström; Pär Stjärne; Karin C Lødrup Carlsen; Kaj-Håkon Carlsen; Josep M Antó; Rudolf Valenta; Marianne van Hage; Magnus Wickman Journal: J Allergy Clin Immunol Date: 2014-12-18 Impact factor: 10.793