Determinants of acute hospital care use by elderly patients in Italy from 1996 to 2006.

To determine the trend of elderly hospitalization rates in Italy, following the economic rationalization of health systems in Western countries, and to evaluate which alternatives to acute hospitalization have been developed during the period 1996-2006 an ecological observational study has been carried out. Data from the Italian Hospital-Discharge Registries (HDRs) of the years 1996, 2001, and 2006 have been analyzed in order to assess the variations among the elderly in terms of hospitalization rates, hospital stay, and bed rates. The results were compared with nursing home admission rates and home care offer. Relations among these variables were explored by univariate and multivariate analyses. Elderly hospital admission rates decreased in Italy from 324.2/1000 in 1996, to 258.7 in 2006. Mean hospital stay of elderly patients was 9.4 days in 2006, 9.5 in 2001 and 10.1 in 1996. A multivariate linear regression model was statistically significant in explaining the variations in hospitalization rates (F: 5.68; p=0.004; R(2)=0.77). The main determinants linked to such variations were the bed rate (β=0.67; p=0.004) and the hospital length of stay (β=-0.77; p=0.03). The analysis showed a reduction in hospitalization rates among the elderly, which was not counterbalanced by an increased offer of home care and/or nursing home services, but was mainly linked to a decrease in the supply of acute beds, with possible consequences on the quality of health care.