OBJECTIVES: To develop a risk prediction model for serious complications after bariatric surgery. BACKGROUND: Despite evidence for improved safety with bariatric surgery, serious complications remain a concern for patients, providers and payers. There is little population-level data on which risk factors can be used to identify patients at high risk for major morbidity. METHODS: The Michigan Bariatric Surgery Collaborative is a statewide consortium of hospitals and surgeons, which maintains an externally-audited prospective clinical registry. We analyzed data from 25,469 patients undergoing bariatric surgery between June 2006 and December 2010. Significant risk factors on univariable analysis were entered into a multivariable logistic regression model to identify factors associated with serious complications (life threatening and/or associated with lasting disability) within 30 days of surgery. Bootstrap resampling was performed to obtain bias-corrected confidence intervals and c-statistic. RESULTS: Overall, 644 patients (2.5%) experienced a serious complication. Significant risk factors (P < 0.05) included: prior VTE (odds ratio [OR] 1.90, confidence interval [CI] 1.41-2.54); mobility limitations (OR 1.61, CI 1.23-2.13); coronary artery disease (OR 1.53, CI 1.17-2.02); age over 50 (OR 1.38, CI 1.18-1.61); pulmonary disease (OR 1.37, CI 1.15-1.64); male gender (OR 1.26, CI 1.06-1.50); smoking history (OR 1.20, CI 1.02-1.40); and procedure type (reference lap band): duodenal switch (OR 9.68, CI 6.05-15.49); laparoscopic gastric bypass (OR 3.58, CI 2.79-4.64); open gastric bypass (OR 3.51, CI 2.38-5.22); sleeve gastrectomy (OR 2.46, CI 1.73-3.50). The c-statistic was 0.68 (bias-corrected to 0.66) and the model was well-calibrated across deciles of predicted risk. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed and validated a population-based risk scoring system for serious complications after bariatric surgery. We expect that this scoring system will improve the process of informed consent, facilitate the selection of procedures for high-risk patients, and allow for better risk stratification across studies of bariatric surgery.
OBJECTIVES: To develop a risk prediction model for serious complications after bariatric surgery. BACKGROUND: Despite evidence for improved safety with bariatric surgery, serious complications remain a concern for patients, providers and payers. There is little population-level data on which risk factors can be used to identify patients at high risk for major morbidity. METHODS: The Michigan Bariatric Surgery Collaborative is a statewide consortium of hospitals and surgeons, which maintains an externally-audited prospective clinical registry. We analyzed data from 25,469 patients undergoing bariatric surgery between June 2006 and December 2010. Significant risk factors on univariable analysis were entered into a multivariable logistic regression model to identify factors associated with serious complications (life threatening and/or associated with lasting disability) within 30 days of surgery. Bootstrap resampling was performed to obtain bias-corrected confidence intervals and c-statistic. RESULTS: Overall, 644 patients (2.5%) experienced a serious complication. Significant risk factors (P < 0.05) included: prior VTE (odds ratio [OR] 1.90, confidence interval [CI] 1.41-2.54); mobility limitations (OR 1.61, CI 1.23-2.13); coronary artery disease (OR 1.53, CI 1.17-2.02); age over 50 (OR 1.38, CI 1.18-1.61); pulmonary disease (OR 1.37, CI 1.15-1.64); male gender (OR 1.26, CI 1.06-1.50); smoking history (OR 1.20, CI 1.02-1.40); and procedure type (reference lap band): duodenal switch (OR 9.68, CI 6.05-15.49); laparoscopic gastric bypass (OR 3.58, CI 2.79-4.64); open gastric bypass (OR 3.51, CI 2.38-5.22); sleeve gastrectomy (OR 2.46, CI 1.73-3.50). The c-statistic was 0.68 (bias-corrected to 0.66) and the model was well-calibrated across deciles of predicted risk. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed and validated a population-based risk scoring system for serious complications after bariatric surgery. We expect that this scoring system will improve the process of informed consent, facilitate the selection of procedures for high-risk patients, and allow for better risk stratification across studies of bariatric surgery.
Authors: Corey J Lager; Nazanene H Esfandiari; Angela R Subauste; Andrew T Kraftson; Morton B Brown; Ruth B Cassidy; Darlene Bellers; Amy L Lockwood; Oliver A Varban; Elif A Oral Journal: Obes Surg Date: 2017-07 Impact factor: 4.129
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Authors: J L Hedenbro; E Näslund; L Boman; G Lundegårdh; A Bylund; M Ekelund; A Laurenius; P Möller; T Olbers; M Sundbom; J Ottosson; I Näslund Journal: Obes Surg Date: 2015-10 Impact factor: 4.129
Authors: Raquel Sánchez-Santos; Ricard Corcelles Codina; Ramon Vilallonga Puy; Salvadora Delgado Rivilla; Jose Vicente Ferrer Valls; Javier Foncillas Corvinos; Carlos Masdevall Noguera; Maria Socas Macias; Pedro Gomes; Carmen Balague Ponz; Jorge De Tomas Palacios; Sergio Ortiz Sebastian; Andres Sanchez-Pernaute; Jose Julian Puche Pla; Daniel Del Castillo Dejardin; Julen Abasolo Vega; Ester Mans Muntwyler; Ana Garcia Navarro; Carlos Duran Escribano; Norberto Cassinello Fernández; Nieves Perez Climent; Jose Antonio Gracia Solanas; Francisca Garcia-Moreno Nisa; Alberto Hernández Matias; Victor Valentí Azcarate; Jose Eduardo Perez Folques; Inmaculada Navarro Garcia; Eduardo Dominguez-Adame Lanuza; Sagrario Martinez Cortijo; Jesus González Fernández Journal: Obes Surg Date: 2016-12 Impact factor: 4.129