BACKGROUND: Different risk-prediction models have been developed, but none is generally accepted in selecting patients for esophagectomy. This study evaluated 5 most frequently used risk-prediction models, including the American Society of Anesthesiologists, Portsmouth-modified Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM), and the adjusted version for Oesophagogastric surgery (O-POSSUM), Charlson and the Age adjusted Charlson score to assess postoperative mortality after transthoracic esophagectomy. METHODS: Data were obtained from 278 consecutive esophageal cancer patients between 1991 and 2007. Performance in predicting postoperative mortality (in-hospital and 90-day mortality) were analyzed regarding calibration (Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test) and discrimination (area under the receiver operator curve). RESULTS: The Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was applied to each model and showed a significant outcome for only the P-POSSUM score (P = .035). The receiver operator curve indicated discriminatory power for P-POSSUM (.766) and for O-POSSUM (.756), other models did not exceed the minimal surface of .7. CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative mortality after esophagectomy was best predicted by O-POSSUM. However, it still overpredicted postoperative mortality.
BACKGROUND: Different risk-prediction models have been developed, but none is generally accepted in selecting patients for esophagectomy. This study evaluated 5 most frequently used risk-prediction models, including the American Society of Anesthesiologists, Portsmouth-modified Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM), and the adjusted version for Oesophagogastric surgery (O-POSSUM), Charlson and the Age adjusted Charlson score to assess postoperative mortality after transthoracic esophagectomy. METHODS: Data were obtained from 278 consecutive esophageal cancerpatients between 1991 and 2007. Performance in predicting postoperative mortality (in-hospital and 90-day mortality) were analyzed regarding calibration (Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test) and discrimination (area under the receiver operator curve). RESULTS: The Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was applied to each model and showed a significant outcome for only the P-POSSUM score (P = .035). The receiver operator curve indicated discriminatory power for P-POSSUM (.766) and for O-POSSUM (.756), other models did not exceed the minimal surface of .7. CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative mortality after esophagectomy was best predicted by O-POSSUM. However, it still overpredicted postoperative mortality.
Authors: Gregory O'Grady; Ahmer M Hameed; Tony C Pang; Emma Johnston; Vincent T Lam; Arthur J Richardson; Michael J Hollands Journal: World J Surg Date: 2015-08 Impact factor: 3.352
Authors: John M Findlay; Richard S Gillies; Bruno Sgromo; Robert E K Marshall; Mark R Middleton; Nicholas D Maynard Journal: J Gastrointest Surg Date: 2014-04-24 Impact factor: 3.452
Authors: H G van den Boorn; E G Engelhardt; J van Kleef; M A G Sprangers; M G H van Oijen; A Abu-Hanna; A H Zwinderman; V M H Coupé; H W M van Laarhoven Journal: PLoS One Date: 2018-02-08 Impact factor: 3.240
Authors: Z Faiz; M van Putten; R H A Verhoeven; J W van Sandick; G A P Nieuwenhuijzen; M J C van der Sangen; V E P P Lemmens; B P L Wijnhoven; J T M Plukker Journal: Ann Surg Oncol Date: 2019-02-04 Impact factor: 5.344