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Literature DB >> 21856946

Dynamics of the plague-wildlife-human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds.

Noelle I Samia¹, Kyrre Linné Kausrud, Hans Heesterbeek, Vladimir Ageyev, Mike Begon, Kung-Sik Chan, Nils C Stenseth.

Abstract

Plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis) is a zoonotic reemerging infectious disease with reservoirs in rodent populations worldwide. Using one-half of a century of unique data (1949-1995) from Kazakhstan on plague dynamics, including data on the main rodent host reservoir (great gerbil), main vector (flea), human cases, and external (climate) conditions, we analyze the full ecoepidemiological (bubonic) plague system. We show that two epidemiological threshold quantities play key roles: one threshold relating to the dynamics in the host reservoir, and the second threshold relating to the spillover of the plague bacteria into the human population.

Entities: Disease Species

Mesh：

Year: 2011 PMID： 21856946 PMCID： PMC3167548 DOI： 10.1073/pnas.1015946108

Source DB: PubMed Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ISSN： 0027-8424 Impact factor: 11.205

14 in total

1. Bayesian population dynamics of interacting species: great gerbils and fleas in Kazakhstan.

Authors: Arnoldo Frigessi; Marit Holden; Clare Marshall; Hildegunn Viljugrein; Nils Chr Stenseth; Lars Holden; Vladimir Ageyev; Nikolay L Klassovskiy
Journal: Biometrics Date: 2005-03 Impact factor: 2.571

2. Statistical analysis of the dynamics of antibody loss to a disease-causing agent: plague in natural populations of great gerbils as an example.

Authors: Siyun Park; Kung-Sik Chan; Hildegunn Viljugrein; Larissa Nekrassova; Bakhtiyar Suleimenov; Vladimir S Ageyev; Nikolay L Klassovskiy; Sergey B Pole; Nils Chr Stenseth
Journal: J R Soc Interface Date: 2007-02-22 Impact factor: 4.118

3. Bubonic plague: a metapopulation model of a zoonosis.

Authors: M J Keeling; C A Gilligan
Journal: Proc Biol Sci Date: 2000-11-07 Impact factor: 5.349

4. Early-phase transmission of Yersinia pestis by unblocked fleas as a mechanism explaining rapidly spreading plague epizootics.

Authors: Rebecca J Eisen; Scott W Bearden; Aryn P Wilder; John A Montenieri; Michael F Antolin; Kenneth L Gage
Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Date: 2006-10-10 Impact factor: 11.205

5. Effect of air temperature and humidity on the survival of pre-imaginal stages of two flea species (Siphonaptera: Pulicidae).

Authors: B R Krasnov; I S Khokhlova; L J Fielden; N V Burdelova
Journal: J Med Entomol Date: 2001-09 Impact factor: 2.278

6. Plague outbreaks in prairie dog populations explained by percolation thresholds of alternate host abundance.

Authors: Daniel J Salkeld; Marcel Salathé; Paul Stapp; James Holland Jones
Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Date: 2010-07-26 Impact factor: 11.205

7. The abundance threshold for plague as a critical percolation phenomenon.

Authors: S Davis; P Trapman; H Leirs; M Begon; J A P Heesterbeek
Journal: Nature Date: 2008-07-31 Impact factor: 49.962

8. Predictive thresholds for plague in Kazakhstan.

Authors: Stephen Davis; Mike Begon; Luc De Bruyn; Vladimir S Ageyev; Nikolay L Klassovskiy; Sergey B Pole; Hildegunn Viljugrein; Nils Chr Stenseth; Herwig Leirs
Journal: Science Date: 2004-04-30 Impact factor: 47.728

9. Climatically driven synchrony of gerbil populations allows large-scale plague outbreaks.

Authors: Kyrre Linné Kausrud; Hildegunn Viljugrein; Arnoldo Frigessi; Mike Begon; Stephen Davis; Herwig Leirs; Vladimir Dubyanskiy; Nils Chr Stenseth
Journal: Proc Biol Sci Date: 2007-08-22 Impact factor: 5.349

Review 10. Plague: past, present, and future.

Authors: Nils Chr Stenseth; Bakyt B Atshabar; Mike Begon; Steven R Belmain; Eric Bertherat; Elisabeth Carniel; Kenneth L Gage; Herwig Leirs; Lila Rahalison
Journal: PLoS Med Date: 2008-01-15 Impact factor: 11.069

23 in total

1. Deer, predators, and the emergence of Lyme disease.

Authors: Taal Levi; A Marm Kilpatrick; Marc Mangel; Christopher C Wilmers
Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Date: 2012-06-18 Impact factor: 11.205

2. Emergence, spread, persistence and fade-out of sylvatic plague in Kazakhstan.

Authors: Lise Heier; Geir O Storvik; Stephen A Davis; Hildegunn Viljugrein; Vladimir S Ageyev; Evgeniya Klassovskaya; Nils Chr Stenseth
Journal: Proc Biol Sci Date: 2011-02-23 Impact factor: 5.349

3. Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe.

Authors: Boris V Schmid; Ulf Büntgen; W Ryan Easterday; Christian Ginzler; Lars Walløe; Barbara Bramanti; Nils Chr Stenseth
Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Date: 2015-02-23 Impact factor: 11.205

Review 4. Infectious disease agents mediate interaction in food webs and ecosystems.

Authors: Sanja Selakovic; Peter C de Ruiter; Hans Heesterbeek
Journal: Proc Biol Sci Date: 2014-01-08 Impact factor: 5.349

5. Interannual cycles of Hantaan virus outbreaks at the human-animal interface in Central China are controlled by temperature and rainfall.

Authors: Huaiyu Tian; Pengbo Yu; Bernard Cazelles; Lei Xu; Hua Tan; Jing Yang; Shanqian Huang; Bo Xu; Jun Cai; Chaofeng Ma; Jing Wei; Shen Li; Jianhui Qu; Marko Laine; Jingjun Wang; Shilu Tong; Nils Chr Stenseth; Bing Xu
Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Date: 2017-07-10 Impact factor: 11.205

Review 6. The fauna and perspective of rodentia ectoparasites in Iran relying on their roles within public health and veterinary characteristics.

Authors: Mousa Khosravani
Journal: J Parasit Dis Date: 2017-10-03

Review 7. Evaluation of Yersinia pestis Transmission Pathways for Sylvatic Plague in Prairie Dog Populations in the Western U.S.

Authors: Katherine L D Richgels; Robin E Russell; Gebbiena M Bron; Tonie E Rocke
Journal: Ecohealth Date: 2016-05-27 Impact factor: 3.184