OBJECTIVE: To provide data on type 1 diabetes (T1D) epidemiology in childhood over a period of 20 years and to predict prevalence and cohort-age-specific incidence rates (IRs) for the next two decades in Germany. METHODS: The Baden-Wuerttemberg Diabetes Incidence Registry (DIARY) includes children and adolescents below 15 years of age with new onset of T1D (period 1987-2006, n = 5108 cases). RESULTS: The mean age- and sex-standardized IR was 15.3/100 000/year (95% CI 14.8-15.7) and the average increase in the IR was 4.4% per year (95% CI 3.9-4.9). Within the next 20 years (2007-2026), the risk for developing diabetes will increase like the square of a linear function with calendar year for all age ranges. There is a strong correlation between the predicted IRs of the cohorts and the observed IRs (n = 300; root mean square error = 0.56; r(2) = 0.71) and a negative correlation between mean age at onset and T1D IR (p = 0.02). On 31 December 2006, the prevalence of T1D was 0.126% (95% CI 0.121-0.132). The predicted prevalence (end of 2026) is estimated to be 0.265% (95% CI 0.25-0.28; predicted cases: n = 2950; 95% CI 2900-3000). CONCLUSIONS: In comparison to observations made in the past, the risk of disease rises even faster than expected: The younger the child, the quicker the increase of the cohort-age-specific IR and the higher the risk for T1D during lifetime.
OBJECTIVE: To provide data on type 1 diabetes (T1D) epidemiology in childhood over a period of 20 years and to predict prevalence and cohort-age-specific incidence rates (IRs) for the next two decades in Germany. METHODS: The Baden-Wuerttemberg Diabetes Incidence Registry (DIARY) includes children and adolescents below 15 years of age with new onset of T1D (period 1987-2006, n = 5108 cases). RESULTS: The mean age- and sex-standardized IR was 15.3/100 000/year (95% CI 14.8-15.7) and the average increase in the IR was 4.4% per year (95% CI 3.9-4.9). Within the next 20 years (2007-2026), the risk for developing diabetes will increase like the square of a linear function with calendar year for all age ranges. There is a strong correlation between the predicted IRs of the cohorts and the observed IRs (n = 300; root mean square error = 0.56; r(2) = 0.71) and a negative correlation between mean age at onset and T1D IR (p = 0.02). On 31 December 2006, the prevalence of T1D was 0.126% (95% CI 0.121-0.132). The predicted prevalence (end of 2026) is estimated to be 0.265% (95% CI 0.25-0.28; predicted cases: n = 2950; 95% CI 2900-3000). CONCLUSIONS: In comparison to observations made in the past, the risk of disease rises even faster than expected: The younger the child, the quicker the increase of the cohort-age-specific IR and the higher the risk for T1D during lifetime.
Authors: Mark A Atkinson; Bart O Roep; Amanda Posgai; Daniel C S Wheeler; Mark Peakman Journal: Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol Date: 2018-10-24 Impact factor: 32.069
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Authors: Alexander Bendas; Ulrike Rothe; Wieland Kiess; Thomas Michael Kapellen; Thoralf Stange; Ulf Manuwald; Eckhard Salzsieder; Reinhard Walter Holl; Olaf Schoffer; Anna Stahl-Pehe; Guido Giani; Stefan Ehehalt; Andreas Neu; Joachim Rosenbauer Journal: PLoS One Date: 2015-07-16 Impact factor: 3.240
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