OBJECTIVE: To use lung cancer mortality rates from 1979 to 2008 in Andalusia, southern Spain (population >8,000,000), to provide an estimate of the future number of deaths for the period 2009-2028. DESIGN: The numbers of lung cancer deaths from 1979 to 2008 were obtained from the Andalusian Institute for Statistics (AIS). Data were arranged in 5-year age groups using an age-period-cohort model. Age-standardised rates (ASR) per 100, 000 were calculated for males and females. Population projections for Andalusia 2009-2028 were downloaded from the AIS database. RESULTS: In males, the ASR varied from 46.1 in 2004-2008 to 34.6 in 2024-2028, with a projected 33% decrease. In females, the ASR varied from 4.9 in 2004-2008 to 8.9 per 100,000 in 2024-2028, with a projected 45% increase. This reflects an annual change of -1.3% for males and of +2.7% for females for the period 2009-2028. The sex ratio is projected to drop from a male:female ratio of 11 (1979-1983) to 3.8 (2024-2028). CONCLUSIONS: Our projections emphasise the significance of a continuously increasing trend in female lung cancer mortality, with a drop in the projected sex ratio.
OBJECTIVE: To use lung cancer mortality rates from 1979 to 2008 in Andalusia, southern Spain (population >8,000,000), to provide an estimate of the future number of deaths for the period 2009-2028. DESIGN: The numbers of lung cancer deaths from 1979 to 2008 were obtained from the Andalusian Institute for Statistics (AIS). Data were arranged in 5-year age groups using an age-period-cohort model. Age-standardised rates (ASR) per 100, 000 were calculated for males and females. Population projections for Andalusia 2009-2028 were downloaded from the AIS database. RESULTS: In males, the ASR varied from 46.1 in 2004-2008 to 34.6 in 2024-2028, with a projected 33% decrease. In females, the ASR varied from 4.9 in 2004-2008 to 8.9 per 100,000 in 2024-2028, with a projected 45% increase. This reflects an annual change of -1.3% for males and of +2.7% for females for the period 2009-2028. The sex ratio is projected to drop from a male:female ratio of 11 (1979-1983) to 3.8 (2024-2028). CONCLUSIONS: Our projections emphasise the significance of a continuously increasing trend in female lung cancer mortality, with a drop in the projected sex ratio.