Pushed to the limit: consequences of climate change for the Araucariaceae: a relictual rain forest family.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Under predicted climate change scenarios, increased temperatures are likely to predispose trees to leaf and other tissue damage, resulting in plant death and contraction of already narrow distribution ranges in many relictual species. The effects of predicted upward temperatures may be further exacerbated by changes in rainfall patterns and damage caused by frosts on trees that have been insufficiently cold-hardened. The Araucariaceae is a relictual family and the seven species found in Australia have limited natural distributions characterized by low frost intensity and frequency, and warm summer temperatures. The temperature limits for these species were determined in order to help understand how such species will fare in a changing climate.
METHODS: Experiments were conducted using samples from representative trees of the Araucariaceae species occurring in Australia, Agathis (A. atropurpurea, A. microstachya and A. robusta), Arauacaria (A. bidwilli, A. cunninghamii and A. heterophylla) and Wollemia nobilis. Samples were collected from plants grown in a common garden environment. Lower and higher temperature limits were determined by subjecting detached winter-hardened leaves to temperatures from 0 to -17 °C and summer-exposed leaves to 25 to 63 °C, then measuring the efficiency of photosystem II (F(v)/F(m)) and visually rating leaf damage. The exotherm, a sharp rise in temperature indicating the point of ice nucleation within the cells of the leaf, was measured on detached leaves of winter-hardened and summer temperature-exposed leaves. KEY
RESULTS: Lower temperature limits (indicated by FT(50), the temperature at which PSII efficiency is 50 %, and LT(50) the temperature at which 50 % visual leaf damage occurred) were approx. -5·5 to -7·5 °C for A. atropurpurea, A. microstachya and A. heterophylla, approx. -7 to -9 °C for A. robusta, A. bidwillii and A. cunninghamii, and -10·5 to -11 °C for W. nobilis. High temperature damage began at 47·5 °C for W. nobilis, and occurred in the range 48·5-52 °C for A. bidwillii and A. cunninghamii, and in the range 50·5-53·5 °C for A. robusta, A. microstachya and A. heterophylla. Winter-hardened leaves had ice nucleation temperatures of -5·5 °C or lower, with W. nobilis the lowest at -6·8 °C. All species had significantly higher ice nucleation temperatures in summer, with A. atropurpurea and A. heterophylla forming ice in the leaf at temperatures >3 °C higher in summer than in winter. Wollemia nobilis had lower FT(50) and LT(50) values than its ice nucleation temperature, indicating that the species has a degree of ice tolerance.
CONCLUSIONS: While lower temperature limits in the Australian Araucariaceae are generally unlikely to affect their survival in wild populations during normal winters, unseasonal frosts may have devastating effects on tree survival. Extreme high temperatures are not common in the areas of natural occurrence, but upward temperature shifts, in combination with localized radiant heating, may increase the heat experienced within a canopy by at least 10 °C and impact on tree survival, and may contribute to range contraction. Heat stress may explain why many landscape plantings of W. nobilis have failed in hotter areas of Australia.