Obesity reduction within a generation: the dual roles of prevention and treatment.

In 2010, the White House Task Force on Childhood Obesity provided benchmark goals for reducing childhood obesity. We evaluated the balance of prevention and treatment required for achieving Task Force goals in benchmark years 2015, 2020, and 2030. We created a simulation of US birth cohorts (2-19 years) born 2008-2030. For each year, we assumed "old" birth cohorts (part of previous benchmark obesity estimates) would benefit from obesity treatment strategies, and "new" birth cohorts would benefit from obesity prevention strategies. We assessed obesity prevalence that must be achieved through prevention strategies, under varying assumptions of treatment effectiveness. When we assumed a 1% absolute reduction in prevalence through treatment, we found that prevention strategies would need to achieve an obesity prevalence of 12% by 2015, 8% by 2020, and 0.3% by 2030. Because of higher obesity prevalence among minority children, prevention strategies would need to achieve a negative prevalence by 2030, which is implausible. Under more generous assumptions of treatment effectiveness, estimates became positive but remained low. Task Force goals are more difficult to achieve with each benchmark year. Policies must focus on obesity treatment interventions, particularly targeted to racial/ethnic minority children, to make progress in stemming the epidemic.