Risky business: using necessarily imprecise casualty counts to estimate occupational risks for HIV-1 infection.

Although the genesis of healthcare worker anxiety regarding occupational risks of HIV-1 infection is clear, the reasons for continued insistence on a meticulous "casualty count" become less clear with time. One could, in fact, argue that the precise number of such infections has become virtually meaningless, because the routes of occupational/nosocomial transmission of HIV-1 and the magnitude of risk for infection following an adverse exposure in the healthcare setting have been well-characterized. Nevertheless, with the substantial limitations of these data clearly in mind, we have summarized the numbers of healthcare workers reported to have HIV-1 infection in each of the above categories in Table 2. The likelihood that an individual case represents true occupational infection decreases as one moves down the table. Having waded through the depths of this literature, we have reached the conclusion that, of the available data, the magnitude of risk for occupational HIV-1 infection remains the single most useful and instructive statistic available. Longitudinal cohort studies of HCWs involved in the day-to-day care of HIV-1-infected patients and in the handling and processing of specimens from such patients provide the best available evidence regarding the magnitude of risk for transmission of this virus in the healthcare setting. Fourteen prospective studies are currently in progress, with approximately 2,000 HCWs enrolled (Table 4). Six HCWs enrolled in these studies have developed serologic evidence of HIV-1 infection following percutaneous exposures, yielding an infection rate per participant of 0.32% and an infection rate per exposure of 0.31%.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)