Tatjana S Potpara1, Goran R Stankovic2, Branko D Beleslin2, Marija M Polovina3, Jelena M Marinkovic4, Miodrag C Ostojic2, Gregory Y H Lip5. 1. Cardiology Clinic, Clinical Centre of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia; Medical Faculty, University of Belgrade, Serbia. Electronic address: tanjapotpara@gmail.com. 2. Cardiology Clinic, Clinical Centre of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia; Medical Faculty, University of Belgrade, Serbia. 3. Cardiology Clinic, Clinical Centre of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia. 4. Institute for Medical Statistics, University School of Medicine, Serbia. 5. University of Birmingham Centre for Cardiovascular Sciences, City Hospital, Birmingham, England.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Lone atrial fibrillation (AF) has been suggested to have a favorable long-term prognosis. Significant interest has been directed at factors predicting arrhythmia progression, and the HATCH score (hypertension, age ≥ 75 years, transient ischemic attack or stroke [2 points], COPD, and heart failure [2 points]) recently has been proposed as a predictive score for AF progression. We investigated long-term outcomes in a large cohort of newly diagnosed lone AF and whether progression from paroxysmal to permanent AF confers an adverse impact on outcomes, including stroke and thromboembolism. METHODS: The study was an observational cohort of 346 patients with newly diagnosed lone AF with a mean follow-up of 12.1 ± 7.3 years. RESULTS: Baseline paroxysmal AF was confirmed in 242 patients, and of these, 65 (26.9%) subsequently experienced progression to permanent AF. Older age and development of congestive heart failure during follow-up were the multivariate predictors of AF progression (both P < .01), which was documented in 19.8% of patients with a HATCH score of 0 vs 63.2% with a score of 2 (P < .001), although the predictive validity of the HATCH score per se was modest (C statistic, 0.6). The annual rate of thromboembolism and heart failure during follow-up were low (0.4% each), and five patients (1.4%) died. AF progression, development of cardiac diseases, and older age were multivariate predictors of adverse outcomes, including thromboembolism (all P < .05). Baseline CHADS(2) (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 75, diabetes mellitus, prior stroke or transient ischemic attack) score was not predictive for thromboembolism (C statistic, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.31-0.69). CONCLUSIONS: This 12-year follow-up study provides confirmatory evidence of a generally favorable prognosis of lone AF, but adverse outcomes (including stroke and thromboembolism) are significantly influenced by age and the (new) development of underlying heart disease. Arrhythmia progression in lone AF is a marker of increased risk for adverse cardiovascular events.
BACKGROUND: Lone atrial fibrillation (AF) has been suggested to have a favorable long-term prognosis. Significant interest has been directed at factors predicting arrhythmia progression, and the HATCH score (hypertension, age ≥ 75 years, transient ischemic attack or stroke [2 points], COPD, and heart failure [2 points]) recently has been proposed as a predictive score for AF progression. We investigated long-term outcomes in a large cohort of newly diagnosed lone AF and whether progression from paroxysmal to permanent AF confers an adverse impact on outcomes, including stroke and thromboembolism. METHODS: The study was an observational cohort of 346 patients with newly diagnosed lone AF with a mean follow-up of 12.1 ± 7.3 years. RESULTS: Baseline paroxysmal AF was confirmed in 242 patients, and of these, 65 (26.9%) subsequently experienced progression to permanent AF. Older age and development of congestive heart failure during follow-up were the multivariate predictors of AF progression (both P < .01), which was documented in 19.8% of patients with a HATCH score of 0 vs 63.2% with a score of 2 (P < .001), although the predictive validity of the HATCH score per se was modest (C statistic, 0.6). The annual rate of thromboembolism and heart failure during follow-up were low (0.4% each), and five patients (1.4%) died. AF progression, development of cardiac diseases, and older age were multivariate predictors of adverse outcomes, including thromboembolism (all P < .05). Baseline CHADS(2) (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 75, diabetes mellitus, prior stroke or transient ischemic attack) score was not predictive for thromboembolism (C statistic, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.31-0.69). CONCLUSIONS: This 12-year follow-up study provides confirmatory evidence of a generally favorable prognosis of lone AF, but adverse outcomes (including stroke and thromboembolism) are significantly influenced by age and the (new) development of underlying heart disease. Arrhythmia progression in lone AF is a marker of increased risk for adverse cardiovascular events.
Authors: Hugh Calkins; Gerhard Hindricks; Riccardo Cappato; Young-Hoon Kim; Eduardo B Saad; Luis Aguinaga; Joseph G Akar; Vinay Badhwar; Josep Brugada; John Camm; Peng-Sheng Chen; Shih-Ann Chen; Mina K Chung; Jens Cosedis Nielsen; Anne B Curtis; D Wyn Davies; John D Day; André d'Avila; N M S Natasja de Groot; Luigi Di Biase; Mattias Duytschaever; James R Edgerton; Kenneth A Ellenbogen; Patrick T Ellinor; Sabine Ernst; Guilherme Fenelon; Edward P Gerstenfeld; David E Haines; Michel Haissaguerre; Robert H Helm; Elaine Hylek; Warren M Jackman; Jose Jalife; Jonathan M Kalman; Josef Kautzner; Hans Kottkamp; Karl Heinz Kuck; Koichiro Kumagai; Richard Lee; Thorsten Lewalter; Bruce D Lindsay; Laurent Macle; Moussa Mansour; Francis E Marchlinski; Gregory F Michaud; Hiroshi Nakagawa; Andrea Natale; Stanley Nattel; Ken Okumura; Douglas Packer; Evgeny Pokushalov; Matthew R Reynolds; Prashanthan Sanders; Mauricio Scanavacca; Richard Schilling; Claudio Tondo; Hsuan-Ming Tsao; Atul Verma; David J Wilber; Teiichi Yamane Journal: Heart Rhythm Date: 2017-05-12 Impact factor: 6.343
Authors: Hugh Calkins; Karl Heinz Kuck; Riccardo Cappato; Josep Brugada; A John Camm; Shih-Ann Chen; Harry J G Crijns; Ralph J Damiano; D Wyn Davies; John DiMarco; James Edgerton; Kenneth Ellenbogen; Michael D Ezekowitz; David E Haines; Michel Haissaguerre; Gerhard Hindricks; Yoshito Iesaka; Warren Jackman; José Jalife; Pierre Jais; Jonathan Kalman; David Keane; Young-Hoon Kim; Paulus Kirchhof; George Klein; Hans Kottkamp; Koichiro Kumagai; Bruce D Lindsay; Moussa Mansour; Francis E Marchlinski; Patrick M McCarthy; J Lluis Mont; Fred Morady; Koonlawee Nademanee; Hiroshi Nakagawa; Andrea Natale; Stanley Nattel; Douglas L Packer; Carlo Pappone; Eric Prystowsky; Antonio Raviele; Vivek Reddy; Jeremy N Ruskin; Richard J Shemin; Hsuan-Ming Tsao; David Wilber Journal: Heart Rhythm Date: 2012-03-01 Impact factor: 6.343
Authors: Vincenzo Livio Malavasi; Elisa Fantecchi; Virginia Tordoni; Laura Melara; Andrea Barbieri; Marco Vitolo; Gregory Y H Lip; Giuseppe Boriani Journal: Intern Emerg Med Date: 2020-11-07 Impact factor: 3.397
Authors: Andreas Goette; Jonathan M Kalman; Luis Aguinaga; Joseph Akar; Jose Angel Cabrera; Shih Ann Chen; Sumeet S Chugh; Domenico Corradi; Andre D'Avila; Dobromir Dobrev; Guilherme Fenelon; Mario Gonzalez; Stephane N Hatem; Robert Helm; Gerhard Hindricks; Siew Yen Ho; Brian Hoit; Jose Jalife; Young-Hoon Kim; Gregory Y H Lip; Chang-Sheng Ma; Gregory M Marcus; Katherine Murray; Akihiko Nogami; Prashanthan Sanders; William Uribe; David R Van Wagoner; Stanley Nattel Journal: Heart Rhythm Date: 2016-06-10 Impact factor: 6.343
Authors: Evan L Thacker; Paul N Jensen; Bruce M Psaty; Barbara McKnight; W T Longstreth; Sascha Dublin; Katherine M Newton; Nicholas L Smith; David S Siscovick; Susan R Heckbert Journal: Ann Pharmacother Date: 2015-01-27 Impact factor: 3.154
Authors: Hugh Calkins; Gerhard Hindricks; Riccardo Cappato; Young-Hoon Kim; Eduardo B Saad; Luis Aguinaga; Joseph G Akar; Vinay Badhwar; Josep Brugada; John Camm; Peng-Sheng Chen; Shih-Ann Chen; Mina K Chung; Jens Cosedis Nielsen; Anne B Curtis; D Wyn Davies; John D Day; André d'Avila; N M S Natasja de Groot; Luigi Di Biase; Mattias Duytschaever; James R Edgerton; Kenneth A Ellenbogen; Patrick T Ellinor; Sabine Ernst; Guilherme Fenelon; Edward P Gerstenfeld; David E Haines; Michel Haissaguerre; Robert H Helm; Elaine Hylek; Warren M Jackman; Jose Jalife; Jonathan M Kalman; Josef Kautzner; Hans Kottkamp; Karl Heinz Kuck; Koichiro Kumagai; Richard Lee; Thorsten Lewalter; Bruce D Lindsay; Laurent Macle; Moussa Mansour; Francis E Marchlinski; Gregory F Michaud; Hiroshi Nakagawa; Andrea Natale; Stanley Nattel; Ken Okumura; Douglas Packer; Evgeny Pokushalov; Matthew R Reynolds; Prashanthan Sanders; Mauricio Scanavacca; Richard Schilling; Claudio Tondo; Hsuan-Ming Tsao; Atul Verma; David J Wilber; Teiichi Yamane Journal: Europace Date: 2018-01-01 Impact factor: 5.214
Authors: Raphael P Martins; Kuljeet Kaur; Elliot Hwang; Rafael J Ramirez; B Cicero Willis; David Filgueiras-Rama; Steven R Ennis; Yoshio Takemoto; Daniela Ponce-Balbuena; Manuel Zarzoso; Ryan P O'Connell; Hassan Musa; Guadalupe Guerrero-Serna; Uma Mahesh R Avula; Michael F Swartz; Sandesh Bhushal; Makarand Deo; Sandeep V Pandit; Omer Berenfeld; José Jalife Journal: Circulation Date: 2014-01-24 Impact factor: 29.690
Authors: Tyler W Barrett; Wesley H Self; Brian S Wasserman; Candace D McNaughton; Dawood Darbar Journal: Am J Emerg Med Date: 2013-03-09 Impact factor: 2.469