Mixed-Priority Pedestrian Delay Models at Single-Lane Roundabouts.

This paper presents an approach for developing mixed-priority pedestrian delay models at single-lane roundabouts using behavioral crossing data. Mixed-priority refers to crosswalk operations where drivers sometimes yield to create crossing opportunities, but where pedestrians sometimes have to rely on their judgment of gaps in traffic to cross the street. The models use probabilistic behavioral parameters measured in controlled pedestrian crossings by blind pedestrians as part of NCHRP project 3-78a. While blind pedestrians clearly represent a special population of pedestrians, the developed delay model is structured to be applicable to any pedestrian population. Delay is predicted as a function of the probability of encountering a crossing opportunity in the form of a yield or crossable gap, and the probability of utilizing that opportunity, which are combined to produce an overall probability of crossing. The paper presents the theoretical approach to estimating the probability parameters and uses a multi-linear log-transformed regression approach to predict the average pedestrian delay. The final delay model explains 64% of the variability in the observed data and therefore represents a reasonable model for predicting pedestrian delay at single-lane roundabouts. The paper concludes with a discussion of how agencies can estimate the underlying probability parameters for existing or proposed roundabouts using empirical and theoretical approaches, and how pedestrian crossing treatments can be used in the context of the model to reduce average pedestrian delay. The research is important in light of the ongoing debate of the accessibility of modern roundabouts to pedestrians who are blind.