A two-mutation model for radon-induced lung tumors in rats.

The recessive oncogenesis model, according to which inactivation of both alleles of specific genes leads to cancer, has received much recent attention. A mathematical formulation of a two-mutation model for carcinogenesis, which includes the recessive oncogenesis model as a special case, was fitted to data from a large experimental study in which rats exposed to radon daughters developed malignant lung tumors. The model described the data well. The results indicate that fractionation of exposure increased the lifetime probability of tumor. Examination of the parameters of the model suggests that the effect of fractionation can be explained by the relative effects of radon daughters on the mutation rates and on the kinetics of growth of initiated cells. The first mutation rate is very strongly dependent upon the rate of exposure to radon daughters, the second mutation rate much less so, suggesting that the nature of the two mutational events is different. The model makes predictions which are testable in future experiments.