Development and evaluation of a dynamic model that projects population biomarkers of methylmercury exposure from local fish consumption.

A dynamic model was developed to project Hg concentrations in common biomarkers of exposure in response to changes in Hg concentrations in predatory fish from local waters. The model predicts biomarkers in susceptible populations for intake rates representing the mean, 90th, 95th, and 99 th percentiles of populations of interest. The biomarkers the model calculates are blood methylmercury, total hair Hg, and fetal blood methylmercury. Decision makers can use the model to determine the degree of reduction in fish tissue Hg levels necessary to protect the health of susceptible populations. Biomarker output was calibrated with literature sources. Output was then compared to additional literature sources to evaluate model function. Projected biomarkers were not different from literature sources. The model can be used as a tool to understand the impact of local fish consumption on susceptible populations.