Long-term bioethanol system and its implications on GHG emissions: a case study of Thailand.

The study evaluates greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions performance of future bioethanol systems in Thailand to ascertain whether bioethanol for transport could help the country mitigate a global warming impact. GHG emission factors of bioethanol derived from cassava, molasses, and sugar cane are analyzed using 12 scenarios covering the critical variables possibly affecting the GHG performance, i.e., (1) the possible direct land use change caused by expanding feedstock cultivation areas; (2) types of energy carriers used in ethanol plants; and (3) waste utilization, e.g., biogas recovery and dry distillers grains with solubles (DDGS) production. The assessment reveals that GHG performance of a Thai bioethanol system is inclined to decrease in the long run due to the effects from the expansion of plantation areas to satisfy the deficit of cassava and molasses. Therefore, bioethanol will contribute to the country's strategic plan on GHG mitigation in the transportation sector only if the production systems are sustainably managed, i.e., coal replaced by biomass in ethanol plants, biogas recovery, and adoption of improved agricultural practices to increase crop productivity without intensification of chemical fertilizers. Achieving the year 2022 government policy targets for bioethanol with recommended measures would help mitigate GHG emissions up to 4.6 Gg CO(2)-eq per year.