BACKGROUND: To assess the implication of a possible continuation of the decline in ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in the future. METHODS: Annual rates of decline in IHD mortality from 1980-2005 were determined for the national populations of the Netherlands, UK, France and four Nordic countries through regression analysis and used to extrapolate mortality rates until 2030. Through cause-elimination life tables we determined the impact of IHD on life expectancy at birth. RESULTS: In all countries, IHD mortality rates among both sexes declined incessantly until 2005. Age-adjusted mortality rates would have declined by about 50% in 2030 compared to 2005 if past trends were to continue. The impact of IHD on life expectancy at birth would decline by about 25-50% in most populations. The absolute numbers of IHD deaths would decline slowly or even increase in some countries mainly because of population ageing. CONCLUSIONS: If current IHD mortality trends continued, IHD would lose much of its importance as a cause of premature death in the near future. As the incidence and disabling impact of IHD might decline much less, prevention of IHD-related disability instead of mortality may become increasingly important in the future.
BACKGROUND: To assess the implication of a possible continuation of the decline in ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in the future. METHODS: Annual rates of decline in IHD mortality from 1980-2005 were determined for the national populations of the Netherlands, UK, France and four Nordic countries through regression analysis and used to extrapolate mortality rates until 2030. Through cause-elimination life tables we determined the impact of IHD on life expectancy at birth. RESULTS: In all countries, IHD mortality rates among both sexes declined incessantly until 2005. Age-adjusted mortality rates would have declined by about 50% in 2030 compared to 2005 if past trends were to continue. The impact of IHD on life expectancy at birth would decline by about 25-50% in most populations. The absolute numbers of IHD deaths would decline slowly or even increase in some countries mainly because of population ageing. CONCLUSIONS: If current IHD mortality trends continued, IHD would lose much of its importance as a cause of premature death in the near future. As the incidence and disabling impact of IHD might decline much less, prevention of IHD-related disability instead of mortality may become increasingly important in the future.
Authors: Albert Marni Joensen; Torben Joergensen; Søren Lundbye-Christensen; Martin Berg Johansen; Maria Guzman-Castillo; Piotr Bandosz; Jesper Hallas; Eva Irene Bossano Prescott; Simon Capewell; Martin O'Flaherty Journal: PLoS One Date: 2018-04-19 Impact factor: 3.240