Predation of experimental nests is linked to local population dynamics in a fragmented bird population.

Artificial nest experiments (ANEs) are widely used to obtain proxies of natural nest predation for testing a variety of hypotheses, from those dealing with variation in life-history strategies to those assessing the effects of habitat fragmentation on the persistence of bird populations. However, their applicability to real-world scenarios has been criticized owing to the many potential biases in comparing predation rates of artificial and natural nests. Here, we aimed to test the validity of estimates of ANEs using a novel approach. We related predation rates on artificial nests to population viability analyses in a songbird metapopulation as a way of predicting the real impact of predation events on the local populations studied. Predation intensity on artificial nests was negatively related to the species' annual population growth rate in small local populations, whereas the viability of large local populations did not seem to be influenced, even by high nest predation rates. The potential of extrapolation from ANEs to real-world scenarios is discussed, as these results suggest that artificial nest predation estimates may predict demographic processes in small structured populations.