BACKGROUND: The loose and stringent Asthma Predictive Indices (API), developed in Tucson, are popular rules to predict asthma in preschool children. To be clinically useful, they require validation in different settings. OBJECTIVE: To assess the predictive performance of the API in an independent population and compare it with simpler rules based only on preschool wheeze. METHODS: We studied 1954 children of the population-based Leicester Respiratory Cohort, followed up from age 1 to 10 years. The API and frequency of wheeze were assessed at age 3 years, and we determined their association with asthma at ages 7 and 10 years by using logistic regression. We computed test characteristics and measures of predictive performance to validate the API and compare it with simpler rules. RESULTS: The ability of the API to predict asthma in Leicester was comparable to Tucson: for the loose API, odds ratios for asthma at age 7 years were 5.2 in Leicester (5.5 in Tucson), and positive predictive values were 26% (26%). For the stringent API, these values were 8.2 (9.8) and 40% (48%). For the simpler rule early wheeze, corresponding values were 5.4 and 21%; for early frequent wheeze, 6.7 and 36%. The discriminative ability of all prediction rules was moderate (c statistic ≤ 0.7) and overall predictive performance low (scaled Brier score < 20%). CONCLUSION: Predictive performance of the API in Leicester, although comparable to the original study, was modest and similar to prediction based only on preschool wheeze. This highlights the need for better prediction rules.
BACKGROUND: The loose and stringent Asthma Predictive Indices (API), developed in Tucson, are popular rules to predict asthma in preschool children. To be clinically useful, they require validation in different settings. OBJECTIVE: To assess the predictive performance of the API in an independent population and compare it with simpler rules based only on preschool wheeze. METHODS: We studied 1954 children of the population-based Leicester Respiratory Cohort, followed up from age 1 to 10 years. The API and frequency of wheeze were assessed at age 3 years, and we determined their association with asthma at ages 7 and 10 years by using logistic regression. We computed test characteristics and measures of predictive performance to validate the API and compare it with simpler rules. RESULTS: The ability of the API to predict asthma in Leicester was comparable to Tucson: for the loose API, odds ratios for asthma at age 7 years were 5.2 in Leicester (5.5 in Tucson), and positive predictive values were 26% (26%). For the stringent API, these values were 8.2 (9.8) and 40% (48%). For the simpler rule early wheeze, corresponding values were 5.4 and 21%; for early frequent wheeze, 6.7 and 36%. The discriminative ability of all prediction rules was moderate (c statistic ≤ 0.7) and overall predictive performance low (scaled Brier score < 20%). CONCLUSION: Predictive performance of the API in Leicester, although comparable to the original study, was modest and similar to prediction based only on preschool wheeze. This highlights the need for better prediction rules.
Authors: Francine M Ducharme; Sharon D Dell; Dhenduka Radhakrishnan; Roland M Grad; Wade T A Watson; Connie L Yang; Mitchell Zelman Journal: Can Respir J Date: 2015-04-20 Impact factor: 2.409
Authors: N G Papadopoulos; H Arakawa; K-H Carlsen; A Custovic; J Gern; R Lemanske; P Le Souef; M Mäkelä; G Roberts; G Wong; H Zar; C A Akdis; L B Bacharier; E Baraldi; H P van Bever; J de Blic; A Boner; W Burks; T B Casale; J A Castro-Rodriguez; Y Z Chen; Y M El-Gamal; M L Everard; T Frischer; M Geller; J Gereda; D Y Goh; T W Guilbert; G Hedlin; P W Heymann; S J Hong; E M Hossny; J L Huang; D J Jackson; J C de Jongste; O Kalayci; N Aït-Khaled; S Kling; P Kuna; S Lau; D K Ledford; S I Lee; A H Liu; R F Lockey; K Lødrup-Carlsen; J Lötvall; A Morikawa; A Nieto; H Paramesh; R Pawankar; P Pohunek; J Pongracic; D Price; C Robertson; N Rosario; L J Rossenwasser; P D Sly; R Stein; S Stick; S Szefler; L M Taussig; E Valovirta; P Vichyanond; D Wallace; E Weinberg; G Wennergren; J Wildhaber; R S Zeiger Journal: Allergy Date: 2012-06-15 Impact factor: 13.146
Authors: Priyal Amin; Linda Levin; Tolly Epstein; Pat Ryan; Grace LeMasters; Gurjit Khurana Hershey; Tina Reponen; Manuel Villareal; James Lockey; David I Bernstein Journal: J Allergy Clin Immunol Pract Date: 2014-11-06
Authors: Francine M Ducharme; Sharon D Dell; Dhenuka Radhakrishnan; Roland M Grad; Wade Ta Watson; Connie L Yang; Mitchell Zelman Journal: Paediatr Child Health Date: 2015-10 Impact factor: 2.253