Projections for oesophageal cancer incidence in England to 2033.

The United Kingdom has the highest age-standardized incidence of oesophageal cancer in Europe. This study projects the number of cases of oesophageal cancer arising in England over a 25-year period. Data from National Statistics were used to determine the number and incidence of oesophageal cancers diagnosed during 2001-2007 (separated by age and sex). These data were used with population projections to model the number of cancers that would develop in the future. Variant estimates were undertaken with high/low rates of migration and life expectancy and by varying the rate of change in the incidence of oesophageal cancer. The principal projection showed that, compared with the 2007 baseline, the number of oesophageal cancers in men is predicted to rise by 20% by 2014 and by 40% by 2020. In women, after an initial predicted decline, the number of cancers is predicted to rise above the 2007 baseline by 2012 and to be 5% higher by 2023. The variant projections showed that only a small effect was likely to be caused by changes in net migration (<1% change by 2030) and life expectancy (1% change by 2020). The effect of a 1% increase or decrease in the rate of change of incidence had a more marked effect (10% change by 2017 or 2018). None of the modelled scenarios resulted in an overall decrease in the number of projected cases because of the change in population demographics. The number of cases of oesophageal cancer in England is likely to continue to increase.