Vaccination alters the balance between protective immunity, exhaustion, escape, and death in chronic infections.

While T cell-based vaccines have the potential to provide protection against chronic virus infections, they also have the potential to generate immunopathology following subsequent virus infection. We develop a mathematical model to investigate the conditions under which T cells lead to protection versus adverse pathology. The model illustrates how the balance between virus clearance and immune exhaustion may be disrupted when vaccination generates intermediate numbers of specific CD8 T cells. Surprisingly, our model suggests that this adverse effect of vaccination is largely unaffected by the generation of mutant viruses that evade T cell recognition and cannot be avoided by simply increasing the quality (affinity) or diversity of the T cell response. These findings should be taken into account when developing vaccines against persistent infections.