Now you see him, now you don't: experience, not age, is related to reproduction in kittiwakes.

In long-lived species, individuals can skip reproduction. The proportion of breeders affects population growth rate and viability, there is a need to investigate the factors influencing intermittent breeding. The theory predicts that if lack of experience is an important constraint, breeding probabilities should increase with experience for individuals of the same age, whereas under the so-called restraint hypothesis, breeding probabilities should increase with age regardless of experience. However, because the probability of detecting individuals in the wild is generally less than 1, it is difficult to know exactly the number of previous breeding episodes (breeding experience). To cope with this issue, we developed a hidden process model to incorporate experience as a latent state possibly influencing the probability of breeding. Using a 22-year mark-recapture dataset involving 9970 individuals, we analysed simultaneously experience and age effects on breeding probabilities in the kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla). We did not detect an influence of age on adult breeding probabilities. We found that inexperienced birds breed less frequently than experienced birds. Our approach enables us to highlight the key role of experience on adults breeding probabilities and can be used for a wide range of organisms for which detection is less than 1.