Disease propagation analysis and mitigation strategies for effective mass dispensing.

Mass dispensing of medical countermeasures has been proven to be an effective and crucial means to contain the outbreak of highly infectious disease. The large influx of individuals to the point-of dispensing (POD) centers to receive vaccinations or prophylactic treatment, however, raises the potential risk of serious intra-facility cross-infections. To mitigate the effect, a thorough understanding of how disease propagates during the dispensing under different transmission parameters versus POD design and operational factors is necessary. In this study, we employ a large-scale simulation/optimization decision support system, RealOpt, to analyze the propagation of highly infectious disease within dispensing sites. The simulation results are validated and benchmarked by a mathematical model based on ordinary differential equations. Pros and cons of using analytical versus simulation tools are discussed. We further perform sensitivity analysis on the dynamics of intra-POD disease propagation, and explore feasible mitigation strategies for effective mass dispensing.