Development and validation of a predictive microbiology model for survival and growth of Salmonella on chicken stored at 4 to 12 °C.

Salmonella spp. are a leading cause of foodborne illness. Mathematical models that predict Salmonella survival and growth on food from a low initial dose, in response to storage and handling conditions, are valuable tools for helping assess and manage this public health risk. The objective of this study was to develop and to validate the first predictive microbiology model for survival and growth of a low initial dose of Salmonella on chicken during refrigerated storage. Chicken skin was inoculated with a low initial dose (0.9 log) of a multiple antibiotic-resistant strain of Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 (ATCC 700408) and then stored at 4 to 12 °C for 0 to 10 days. A general regression neural network (GRNN) model that predicted log change of Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 as a function of time and temperature was developed. Percentage of residuals in an acceptable prediction zone, from -1 (fail-safe) to 0.5 (fail-dangerous) log, was used to validate the GRNN model by using a criterion of 70% acceptable predictions. Survival but not growth of Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 was observed at 4 to 8 °C. Maximum growth of Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 during 10 days of storage was 0.7 log at 9 °C, 1.1 log at 10 °C, 1.8 log at 11 °C, and 2.9 log at 12 °C. Performance of the GRNN model for predicting dependent data (n=163) was 85% acceptable predictions, for predicting independent data for interpolation (n=77) was 84% acceptable predictions, and for predicting independent data for extrapolation (n=70) to Salmonella Kentucky was 87% acceptable predictions. Thus, the GRNN model provided valid predictions for survival and growth of Salmonella on chicken during refrigerated storage, and therefore the model can be used with confidence to help assess and manage this public health risk.