Changing climate and changing vector-borne disease distribution: the example of Dirofilaria in Europe.

Climatic changes, together with an increase in the movement of dogs across Europe, have caused an increase in the geographical range of Dirofilaria infections. The present paper is focuses on northeastern European countries, where survey data have shown an increase of Dirofilaria repens infections both in animals and humans. A growing degree day-based forecast model has been developed to predict the occurrence. The model is based on evidence that there is a threshold of 14 °C below which Dirofilaria development will not proceed in mosquitoes, there is a requirement of 130 growing degree-days (GDDs) for larvae to reach infectivity, and there is a maximum life expectancy of 30 days for a mosquito vector. The output of this model predicted that the summer temperatures (with peaks in August) are sufficient to facilitate extrinsic incubation of Dirofilaria even at latitudes of 56 °N and longitudes of 39 °E. Despite the fact that both Dirofilaria immitis and D. repens have the same temperature requirement for extrinsic incubation in mosquitoes, empirical data has shown that D. repens is the main cause of dirofilarial infections in both humans and animals. Clinical signs are absent in most canine infections with D. repens. Furthermore, diagnosis is problematic and in-clinic serological tests, such as those for D. immitis, do not exist. Therefore, most infections go undiagnosed, allowing the infection to spread undetected.