Incidence, prevalence and future trends of primary basal cell carcinoma in the Netherlands.

Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) incidence rates are increasing worldwide. This study's objective was to estimate the occurrence of BCC in the Netherlands in terms of incidence and prevalence. Data on first primary carcinomas were retrieved from the Eindhoven Cancer Registry and extrapolated to the Dutch population. Extrapolated data showed a total of 444,131, histologically confirmed cases in the Netherlands between 1973 and 2008. During this period, age-adjusted incidence rates (European Standard Population) increased approximately three-fold from 40 to 148 per 100,000 in males and from 34 to 141 in females. Lifetime risk of BCC was 1 in 5-6 for Dutch citizens. Disease prevalence in the Netherlands was 1.4% and almost four times higher than this (5.4%) in the oldest age group (age 65 years or more). Predictions of future trends showed no signs of a plateau in the number of cases. These estimates should urge Dutch policymakers to provide solutions for the growing group of patients with BCC.