Control of onchocerciasis in Africa: threshold shifts, breakpoints and rules for elimination.

Control of onchocerciasis in Africa is currently based on annual community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI) which has been assumed to be not efficient enough to bring about elimination. However, elimination has recently been reported to have been achieved by CDTI alone in villages of Senegal and Mali, reviving debate on the eradicability of onchocerciasis in Africa. We investigate the eradicability of onchocerciasis by examining threshold shifts and breakpoints predicted by a stochastic transmission model that has been fitted extensively to data. We show that elimination based on CDTI relies on shifting the threshold biting rate to a level that is higher than the annual biting rate. Breakpoints become relevant in the context of when to stop CDTI. In order for the model to predict a good chance for CDTI to eliminate onchocerciasis, facilitating factors such as the macrofilaricidal effect of ivermectin must be assumed. A chart predicting the minimum efficacy of CDTI required for elimination, dependent on the annual biting rate, is provided. Generalisable recommendations into strategies for the elimination of onchocerciasis are derived, particularly referring to the roles of vectors, the residual infection rate under control, and a low-spreader problem originating from patients with low parasite burdens.