Predictors of entry to the nursing home: does length of follow-up matter?

This study examined the extent to which predictors of nursing home entry vary in their salience as a function of length of follow-up. Participants were 201 persons attending five senior day care centers. The impact of baseline assessment on nursing home entry was examined at one, two, and three-year follow-up periods. Analysis revealed that MMSE, IADL, physical non-aggressive agitated behavior, and 4 indicators of caregiver burden had significantly changing impacts on time to nursing home entry. Only depressed affect and age remained significant predictors at all three follow-up periods in the multivariate analysis. Physical and verbal aggressive agitation and declining caregiver health were significant predictors in the short term. Socializing and ethnicity became predictors at year three. We have demonstrated that while some predictors of nursing home placement are robust over varying follow-up times, the predictive value of others changes with length of the follow-up period. Length of follow-up needs to be taken into account in clarifying the processes that predict nursing home entry.