The prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi and the demography of dog populations after insecticidal spraying of houses: a predictive model.

A three-year demographic and seroparasitological follow-up of the canine population of a rural area of Argentina endemic for Chagas' disease was carried out in order to (a) describe the population dynamics of domestic dogs, and (b) predict the decrease in the prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi among these reservoirs after indoor spraying of houses with residual insecticides. For the latter project we designed an age-structured model with a discrete time scale. We assumed a time-dependent exponential decay in the frequency of infected hosts proportional to the host mortality rate, and also assumed and that no differential mortality existed between infected and non-infected dogs. Validation of the model was carried out, and yielded an extremely close fit between observed and theoretical values. The relevance of the model as an aid to designing strategies for the control of animal domestic reservoirs of T. cruzi, and the role of dogs as efficient sentinels of re-infestation of an area, are discussed.