OBJECTIVES: We examined the effect of current patterns of smoking rates on future radon-related lung cancer. METHODS: We combined the model developed by the National Academy of Science's Committee on Health Risks of Exposure to Radon (the BEIR VI committee) for radon risk assessment with a forecasting model of US adult smoking prevalence to estimate proportional decline in radon-related deaths during the present century with and without mitigation of high-radon houses. RESULTS: By 2025, the reduction in radon mortality from smoking reduction (15 percentage points) will surpass the maximum expected reduction from remediation (12 percentage points). CONCLUSIONS: Although still a genuine source of public health concern, radon-induced lung cancer is likely to decline substantially, driven by reductions in smoking rates. Smoking decline will reduce radon deaths more that remediation of high-radon houses, a fact that policymakers should consider as they contemplate the future of cancer control.
OBJECTIVES: We examined the effect of current patterns of smoking rates on future radon-related lung cancer. METHODS: We combined the model developed by the National Academy of Science's Committee on Health Risks of Exposure to Radon (the BEIR VI committee) for radon risk assessment with a forecasting model of US adult smoking prevalence to estimate proportional decline in radon-related deaths during the present century with and without mitigation of high-radon houses. RESULTS: By 2025, the reduction in radon mortality from smoking reduction (15 percentage points) will surpass the maximum expected reduction from remediation (12 percentage points). CONCLUSIONS: Although still a genuine source of public health concern, radon-induced lung cancer is likely to decline substantially, driven by reductions in smoking rates. Smoking decline will reduce radon deaths more that remediation of high-radon houses, a fact that policymakers should consider as they contemplate the future of cancer control.
Authors: S Darby; D Hill; A Auvinen; J M Barros-Dios; H Baysson; F Bochicchio; H Deo; R Falk; F Forastiere; M Hakama; I Heid; L Kreienbrock; M Kreuzer; F Lagarde; I Mäkeläinen; C Muirhead; W Oberaigner; G Pershagen; A Ruano-Ravina; E Ruosteenoja; A Schaffrath Rosario; M Tirmarche; L Tomásek; E Whitley; H-E Wichmann; R Doll Journal: BMJ Date: 2004-12-21
Authors: Daniel Krewski; Jay H Lubin; Jan M Zielinski; Michael Alavanja; Vanessa S Catalan; R William Field; Judith B Klotz; Ernest G Létourneau; Charles F Lynch; Joseph I Lyon; Dale P Sandler; Janet B Schoenberg; Daniel J Steck; Jan A Stolwijk; Clarice Weinberg; Homer B Wilcox Journal: Epidemiology Date: 2005-03 Impact factor: 4.822