Stochastic Approximation and Modern Model-based Designs for Dose-Finding Clinical Trials.

In 1951 Robbins and Monro published the seminal paper on stochastic approximation and made a specific reference to its application to the "estimation of a quantal using response, non-response data". Since the 1990s, statistical methodology for dose-finding studies has grown into an active area of research. The dose-finding problem is at its core a percentile estimation problem and is in line with what the Robbins-Monro method sets out to solve. In this light, it is quite surprising that the dose-finding literature has developed rather independently of the older stochastic approximation literature. The fact that stochastic approximation has seldom been used in actual clinical studies stands in stark contrast with its constant application in engineering and finance. In this article, I explore similarities and differences between the dose-finding and the stochastic approximation literatures. This review also sheds light on the present and future relevance of stochastic approximation to dose-finding clinical trials. Such connections will in turn steer dose-finding methodology on a rigorous course and extend its ability to handle increasingly complex clinical situations.