Job loss and depression: the role of subjective expectations.

Although the importance of expectations is well documented in the decision-making literature, a key shortcoming of the empirical research into effects of involuntary job loss on depression is perhaps its neglect of the subjective expectations of job loss. Using data from the US Health and Retirement Study surveys we examine whether the impact of job loss on mental health is influenced by an individual's subjective expectations regarding future displacement. Our results imply that, among older workers in the age range of 55-65 year, subjective expectations are as significant predictors of depression as job loss itself, and ignoring them can bias the estimate of the impact of job loss on mental health.