Janice L Zimbelman1, Stephen P Juraschek, Xiaoming Zhang, Vernon W-H Lin. 1. Cognitive and Motor Learning Laboratory, Research Service Louis Stokes Department of Veterans Affairs Cleveland Medical Center, and Healthcare First Study Group, Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Neurological Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH 44195, USA.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To examine current and future physical therapy (PT) job surplus/shortage trends across the United States. DESIGN: Forecast models and grading methodology previously published for nursing were used to evaluate individual state PT job shortages from 2008 to 2030. SETTING: Not applicable. PARTICIPANTS: Not applicable. METHODS: The forecast model used to project PT job supply and demand accounted for changes in age and population size on the basis of estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau for each of the 50 states. PT shortages were assigned letter grades on the basis of shortage ratios (difference between demand and supply per 10,000 people) to evaluate PT shortages and describe the changing PT workforce in each state. RESULTS: On the basis of current trends, demand for PT services will outpace the supply of PTs within the United States. Shortages are expected to increase for all 50 states through 2030. By 2030, the number of states receiving below-average grades for their PT shortages will increase from 12 to 48. States in the Northeast are projected to have the smallest shortages, whereas states in the south and west are projected to have the largest shortages. CONCLUSION: These data serve to provide health professionals, policy makers, and stakeholders with a means of assessing current and future PT needs. Discussion of the issues surrounding PT shortages and ongoing assessment of supply and demand must ensue to mitigate projected shortages. Although our model has several limitations and may be oversimplified, it is the first attempt to use available, creditable data to examine both supply and demand for the entire country. Follow-up studies that use more complex modeling are needed to adequately forecast future trends beyond that accomplished in the current article. Monitoring trends over time is critical to maintain an appropriate balance between PT supply and demand that meets the population needs.
OBJECTIVE: To examine current and future physical therapy (PT) job surplus/shortage trends across the United States. DESIGN: Forecast models and grading methodology previously published for nursing were used to evaluate individual state PT job shortages from 2008 to 2030. SETTING: Not applicable. PARTICIPANTS: Not applicable. METHODS: The forecast model used to project PT job supply and demand accounted for changes in age and population size on the basis of estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau for each of the 50 states. PT shortages were assigned letter grades on the basis of shortage ratios (difference between demand and supply per 10,000 people) to evaluate PT shortages and describe the changing PT workforce in each state. RESULTS: On the basis of current trends, demand for PT services will outpace the supply of PTs within the United States. Shortages are expected to increase for all 50 states through 2030. By 2030, the number of states receiving below-average grades for their PT shortages will increase from 12 to 48. States in the Northeast are projected to have the smallest shortages, whereas states in the south and west are projected to have the largest shortages. CONCLUSION: These data serve to provide health professionals, policy makers, and stakeholders with a means of assessing current and future PT needs. Discussion of the issues surrounding PT shortages and ongoing assessment of supply and demand must ensue to mitigate projected shortages. Although our model has several limitations and may be oversimplified, it is the first attempt to use available, creditable data to examine both supply and demand for the entire country. Follow-up studies that use more complex modeling are needed to adequately forecast future trends beyond that accomplished in the current article. Monitoring trends over time is critical to maintain an appropriate balance between PT supply and demand that meets the population needs.
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Authors: Robert E Burke; Christine D Jones; Eric A Coleman; Jason R Falvey; Jennifer E Stevens-Lapsley; Adit A Ginde Journal: Am J Accountable Care Date: 2017-03-10