A decision analysis of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in adult patients with Philadelphia chromosome-negative acute lymphoblastic leukemia in first remission who have an HLA-matched sibling donor.

Clinical studies using genetic randomization cannot accurately answer whether adult patients with Philadelphia chromosome-negative acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) who have a human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-matched sibling should undergo allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) or chemotherapy in first remission, as, in these studies, patients without a sibling donor undergo alternative donor transplantation or chemotherapy alone after a relapse. Therefore, we performed a decision analysis to identify the optimal strategy in this setting. Transition probabilities and utilities were estimated from prospective studies of the Japan Adult Leukemia Study Group, the database of the Japan Society for Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation and the literature. The primary outcome measure was the 10-year survival probability with or without quality of life (QOL) adjustments. Subgroup analyses were performed according to risk stratification on the basis of white blood cell count and cytogenetics, and according to age stratification. In analyses without QOL adjustments, allogeneic HSCT in first remission was superior in the whole population (48.3 vs 32.6%) and in all subgroups. With QOL adjustments, a similar tendency was conserved (44.9 vs 31.7% in the whole population). To improve the probability of long-term survival, allogeneic HSCT in first remission is recommended for patients who have an HLA-matched sibling.