Updated forecasts of the costs of medical care for persons with AIDS, 1989-93.

Data on the number of AIDS cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) from January 1984 to June 1989 are used to predict the number of AIDS cases that will be diagnosed during the years 1989 through 1993. Using quadratic and linear models with the most recent data, it is projected that about 44,000 cases will be diagnosed in 1989, 56,000 in 1990, 70,000 in 1991, 87,000 in 1992, and 104,000 in 1993. These projections are lower than estimates derived using data from January 1984 to June 1988, and they are similar to estimates derived by the CDC. The lifetime medical care cost of treating a person with AIDS is estimated to be about $75,000 (all estimates are in 1988 dollars) assuming that the average length of survival is 15 months and that the intensity of care (that is, the cost of medical care per month) does not fall as longevity rises. This total, $75,000, reflects recent increases in the length of survival and the diffusion of costly drug therapies (for example, AZT and aerosol pentamidine). This study forecasts that the cumulative lifetime medical care costs of treating all people diagnosed with AIDS during a given year to be about $3.3 billion in 1989, $4.3 billion in 1990, $5.3 billion in 1991, $6.5 billion in 1992, and $7.8 billion in 1993.