Potential influence of climate variability on dengue incidence registered in a western pediatric Hospital of Venezuela.

Climate change and variability is affecting human health and disease direct or indirectly through many mechanisms. Dengue is one those diseases that is strongly influenced by climate variability. In this study we assess potential associations between macroclimatic variation and dengue cases in a western pediatric hospital of Venezuela in an eight-year period. Between 2001 and 2008, 7,523 cases of dengue were reported in the Hospital Agustin Zubillaga, Barquisimeto, Venezuela. Climatic periods marked a difference of 23.15% in the mean incidence of cases, from El Niño weeks (-14.16% of cases below the mean incidence) to La Niña months (+8.99% of cases above it) (p=0.0001). Linear regression showed significantly higher dengue incidence with lower values of Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) (El Niño periods) and lower dengue incidence with higher values of ONI (La Niña periods) (p=0.0002). As has been shown herein, climate variability is an important element influencing the dengue epidemiology in Venezuela. However, it is necessary to extend these studies in this and other countries in the region, because these models can be applied for surveillance as well for prediction of dengue.