[Simulation of timber-harvesting area in Xiao Xing' anling Mountains under climate change].

By using the spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS 6.0 PRO), the percentages of timber-harvesting area in Xiao Xing' anling Mountains under current harvesting scenario and under 11 harvesting scenarios with alternating harvesting intensities (alternating time was 10, 20 and 30 years, respectively) in 2000-2400 under climate change were simulated. Alternating harvesting intensity could increase the harvesting area. Comparing with current harvesting scenario, the simulated scenarios could increase the harvesting area by 3%-5% at short term (10-30 years), 2.5%-7% at medium term (40-60 years), and 3.5%-8% at long term (70-100 years). On the whole, the current total harvesting area was still high. Alternating harvesting-intensity could increase the harvesting area within a definite term, but the effect would be unsustainable. To have a sustainable development of forestry in the study area, it is necessary to reduce the harvesting intensity and change the forest management policy.