Do expectancies for reinforcement from smoking change after smoking initiation?

Expectancies are important predictors of smoking behavior. Recent research suggests that expectancies are not stable and vary across internal and external states and levels of cigarette consumption. Expectancies may also vary between individuals as a function of temperamental characteristics such as behavioral undercontrol (BU). Although pre-initiation expectancies have been linked to subsequent smoking behaviors, no study has assessed the effect of smoking initiation on expectancies. The present study was designed to test the hypotheses that both positive (PRE) and negative (NRE) reinforcement expectancies would increase following initiation, and that these changes would be moderated by BU. College students were interviewed 12-15 months apart. Those who initiated smoking between assessments (n = 69) were included in the present study. Linear mixed models showed a significant increase in PRE but not NRE from pre- to postinitiation. The relationship between NRE and time was moderated by BU, such that higher BU was associated with significantly larger post-initiation increases in NRE. Findings suggest that PRE and NRE change significantly following experience with smoking. Furthermore, undercontrolled, impulsive individuals may be particularly vulnerable to smoking with the intention of alleviating aversive states.