BACKGROUND: Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for pregnant HIV-positive women reduces the risk of mother-to-child transmission, but is associated with an increased risk of preterm delivery (<37 weeks gestation). We aimed to quantify the incremental risk-benefit ratio for HAART compared with zidovudine monotherapy with respect to these outcomes. METHODS: Two-stage Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to estimate the risk-benefit ratio for HAART in pregnancy. Estimates of mother-to-child transmission and preterm delivery rates were obtained from UK and Ireland surveillance data collected through the National Study of HIV in Pregnancy and Childhood. RESULTS: At a population level, HAART was associated with a more than sevenfold reduction in mother-to-child transmission compared with zidovudine monotherapy (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.13, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.06-0.27), but with a 1.4-fold increased odds of preterm delivery (AOR 1.43, 95% CI 1.10-1.86) and twofold increased odds of severe preterm delivery (<32 weeks; AOR 2.06, 95% CI 1.09-3.88). The incremental risk-benefit ratio for HAART in pregnancy compared with monotherapy was 0.63 (95% simulation interval 0.06-1.96) additional preterm births and 0.23 (95% simulation interval -0.02-0.88) severe preterm births for each infection prevented. CONCLUSIONS: It is estimated that for every 100 HIV transmissions prevented through the use of HAART (rather than monotherapy), 63 additional preterm deliveries would occur, including 23 at <32 weeks gestation. Interpretation of these ratios is context-dependent and requires additional information about morbidity, mortality and costs associated with the outcomes.
BACKGROUND: Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for pregnant HIV-positive women reduces the risk of mother-to-child transmission, but is associated with an increased risk of preterm delivery (<37 weeks gestation). We aimed to quantify the incremental risk-benefit ratio for HAART compared with zidovudine monotherapy with respect to these outcomes. METHODS: Two-stage Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to estimate the risk-benefit ratio for HAART in pregnancy. Estimates of mother-to-child transmission and preterm delivery rates were obtained from UK and Ireland surveillance data collected through the National Study of HIV in Pregnancy and Childhood. RESULTS: At a population level, HAART was associated with a more than sevenfold reduction in mother-to-child transmission compared with zidovudine monotherapy (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.13, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.06-0.27), but with a 1.4-fold increased odds of preterm delivery (AOR 1.43, 95% CI 1.10-1.86) and twofold increased odds of severe preterm delivery (<32 weeks; AOR 2.06, 95% CI 1.09-3.88). The incremental risk-benefit ratio for HAART in pregnancy compared with monotherapy was 0.63 (95% simulation interval 0.06-1.96) additional preterm births and 0.23 (95% simulation interval -0.02-0.88) severe preterm births for each infection prevented. CONCLUSIONS: It is estimated that for every 100 HIV transmissions prevented through the use of HAART (rather than monotherapy), 63 additional preterm deliveries would occur, including 23 at <32 weeks gestation. Interpretation of these ratios is context-dependent and requires additional information about morbidity, mortality and costs associated with the outcomes.
Authors: Maria H Kim; Saeed Ahmed; Mina C Hosseinipour; Thomas P Giordano; Elizabeth Y Chiao; Xiaoying Yu; Chi Nguyen; Frank Chimbwandira; Peter N Kazembe; Elaine J Abrams Journal: J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr Date: 2015-04-15 Impact factor: 3.731
Authors: Deborah M Money; Emily C Wagner; Evelyn J Maan; Tessa Chaworth-Musters; Izabelle Gadawski; Julie E van Schalkwyk; John C Forbes; David R Burdge; Arianne Y K Albert; Zoe Lohn; Hélène C F Côté Journal: PLoS One Date: 2015-08-06 Impact factor: 3.240