BACKGROUND: The goal of this study was to validate a survival nomogram at a single center, originally developed at multiple institutions in Japan, which combines readily available preoperative variables to predict overall survival after resection of pulmonary metastases from colorectal cancer. METHODS: An external patient cohort from a prospective pulmonary metastases database at the Aichi Cancer Center in Japan was used to test the validity of the pulmonary metastases from a colorectal cancer nomogram. The cohort included 58 consecutive patients who had surgery between January 1999 and December 2005. Nomogram predictions for 3- and 5-year overall survival were calculated for each patient and compared with actual survival. The concordance index was used as an accuracy measure. RESULTS: Data for all necessary variables were available for all patients. At the last follow-up, 30 patients were alive, with a median follow-up of 39 (range, 5-94) months. The 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 96.6, 84.5, 70.5, and 48.9%, respectively. The nomogram concordance index was 0.81 with excellent calibration for both 3- and 5-year overall survival rates. CONCLUSIONS: The high predictive accuracy of pulmonary metastases from a colorectal cancer nomogram demonstrates that this predictive tool derived at multiple institutions can be applied to a small cohort of patients in a single center.
BACKGROUND: The goal of this study was to validate a survival nomogram at a single center, originally developed at multiple institutions in Japan, which combines readily available preoperative variables to predict overall survival after resection of pulmonary metastases from colorectal cancer. METHODS: An external patient cohort from a prospective pulmonary metastases database at the Aichi Cancer Center in Japan was used to test the validity of the pulmonary metastases from a colorectal cancer nomogram. The cohort included 58 consecutive patients who had surgery between January 1999 and December 2005. Nomogram predictions for 3- and 5-year overall survival were calculated for each patient and compared with actual survival. The concordance index was used as an accuracy measure. RESULTS: Data for all necessary variables were available for all patients. At the last follow-up, 30 patients were alive, with a median follow-up of 39 (range, 5-94) months. The 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 96.6, 84.5, 70.5, and 48.9%, respectively. The nomogram concordance index was 0.81 with excellent calibration for both 3- and 5-year overall survival rates. CONCLUSIONS: The high predictive accuracy of pulmonary metastases from a colorectal cancer nomogram demonstrates that this predictive tool derived at multiple institutions can be applied to a small cohort of patients in a single center.
Authors: Markus Graefen; Pierre I Karakiewicz; Ilias Cagiannos; Eric Klein; Patrick A Kupelian; David I Quinn; Susan M Henshall; John J Grygiel; Robert L Sutherland; Phillip D Stricker; Jean de Kernion; Thomas Cangiano; Fritz H Schröder; Mark F Wildhagen; Peter T Scardino; Michael W Kattan Journal: J Clin Oncol Date: 2002-02-15 Impact factor: 44.544
Authors: Dominique Elias; Gabriel Liberale; Déwi Vernerey; Marc Pocard; Michel Ducreux; Valérie Boige; David Malka; Jean-Pierre Pignon; Philippe Lasser Journal: Ann Surg Oncol Date: 2005-09-26 Impact factor: 5.344
Authors: P Girard; M Ducreux; P Baldeyrou; P Rougier; T Le Chevalier; J Bougaran; P Lasser; B Gayet; P Ruffié; D Grunenwald Journal: J Clin Oncol Date: 1996-07 Impact factor: 44.544
Authors: Alyson L Mahar; Carolyn Compton; Susan Halabi; Kenneth R Hess; Martin R Weiser; Patti A Groome Journal: J Surg Oncol Date: 2017-08-02 Impact factor: 3.454