Modeling contextual determinants of HIV/AIDS prevalence in South Africa to inform policy.

There is a voluminous literature on HIV/AIDS and South Africa. However, no study focuses on the modeling of contextual factors concerning HIV/AIDS prevalence in South Africa. In this paper, two models of contextual behavioral risk factors of HIV/AIDS prevalence were developed so that policy makers can be alerted to the key variables in order to help curb the spread of the disease. It was found that fearlessness/low-perception, poverty and hopelessness risks are determinants of an active risk factor. While the latter and passive risk factor (i.e. gender dependency) are the determinants of HIV/AIDS prevalence. As a result, it was argued to go beyond the KABP determinant studies to focus on contextual behavioral risk factors and pointed out that further research is needed on the limit of contextuality of risk factors. In conclusion, policies were suggested to help curb the spread of HIV/AIDS.