Seasonal influenza vaccine supply and target vaccinated population in China, 2004-2009.

To better understand the gap between limited influenza vaccine supply and the target population for vaccination in China, we conducted a retrospective survey to quantify the production capacity, supply and sale of seasonal trivalent inactive vaccine (TIV) from the 2004-2005 through the 2008-2009 season, and estimated the target population who should receive annual influenza vaccine. The maximum domestic capacity to produce TIV was 126 million doses in 2009. A total of 32.5 million doses of TIV were supplied in 2008-2009, with an average annual increase rate of 18% from 16.9 million in 2004-2005. This represents an amount sufficient to vaccinate 1.9% of Chinese population. The average number of doses of TIV for sale by province ranged from <5 to 108 per 1000 people. The differences are explained in part by level of economic development but also influenced by local reimbursement policies in some provinces. Based on national recommendations, we estimated a target population of 570.6 million or 43% of the total population. Supply and domestic production capacity for influenza vaccine is currently insufficient to vaccinate the estimated target population in China. The Government of China should consider measures to improve domestic production capacity of influenza vaccine, expand successful promotional campaigns, and add cost subsidies in high risk groups to further encourage influenza vaccine usage.