Predicting chemically induced duodenal ulcer and adrenal necrosis with classification trees.

Binary tree-structured statistical classification algorithms and properties of 56 model alkyl nucleophiles were brought to bear on two problems of experimental pharmacology and toxicology. Each rat of a learning sample of 745 was administered one compound and autopsied to determine the presence of duodenal ulcer or adrenal hemorrhagic necrosis. The cited statistical classification schemes were then applied to these outcomes and 67 features of the compounds to ascertain those characteristics that are associated with biologic activity. For predicting duodenal ulceration, dipole moment, melting point, and solubility in octanol are particularly important, while for predicting adrenal necrosis, important features include the number of sulfhydryl groups and double bonds. These methods may constitute inexpensive but powerful ways to screen untested compounds for possible organ-specific toxicity. Mechanisms for the etiology and pathogenesis of the duodenal and adrenal lesions are suggested, as are additional avenues for drug design.