Spatio-temporal dynamics of African swine fever outbreaks in Nigeria, 2002-2007.

African swine fever (ASF) was first introduced into Nigeria through Lagos state in 1997. The disease rapidly spread to Ogun state in 1998 and extended to the Niger Delta (Delta, Rivers and Akwa Ibom states) in the same year. In 1998, Kaduna, Plateau and Benue states all north of the country experienced ASF for the first time. Poor farm biosecurity, bad abattoir practices and extensive/free range pig farming systems led to extensive spread of the diseases to about 16 Nigerian states excluding the far northwest and north east. A total of 1036 field samples collected over a 6-year period covering 19 Nigerian states were analysed during the period under review; 805 samples were PCR positive and 231 negative. Positive samples were detected in all three surveillance phases and from all agroecological zones across the country. For the first time since its incursion, ASF was identified in some states; Bauchi, Adamawa Taraba and Gombe with chances of control very slim and further spread of the virus northward envisaged. Outbreaks of the disease are now a perennial problem with an increasing disease burden in areas where high numbers of pigs are produced in the country. The National Veterinary Research Institute (NVRI), Vom, since 2002 investigated ASF based on tissue submissions and reports made by individuals, private & commercial farms and agricultural bodies. We present an analysis of geographical and temporal distribution of ASF in the country from 2002 to 2007 and a review of historic outbreaks since the first incursion. Risk factors and prospects for control are discussed.