Adolescent alcohol use trajectories: Predictors and subsequent problems.

This study aimed at identifying different alcohol drinking trajectories in early to late adolescence. We also examined whether certain factors predicted membership of a specific trajectory and to what extent trajectory membership was linked to later negative consequences. Data were drawn from a longitudinal cohort study starting with 1923 adolescents including all seventh grade students in six school districts in Stockholm, Sweden 2001 (age 14), with follow-up in 2002, 2003, and 2006 (age 19). Cluster- and multinomial logistic regression analyses revealed four developmental pathways: low, gradually increasing, high, and suddenly increasing consumption. "High consumers" and "sudden increasers" reported higher levels of alcohol consumption, heavy episodic drinking, and alcohol-related problems both at age 14-16 and at age 19. The "gradual increasers" were more likely to smoke cigarettes, have easy access to alcohol, visit youth recreation centres, have friends who drink, and report a poorer health, compared to the "low consumer/abstainer group". "High consumers" were more likely to have drinking peers than both "low consumers/abstainers" and "gradual increasers".