Comparing the health risks and benefits of contraceptive choices.

Simulation models were used to compare the health consequences of birth control methods currently relied on by American women with those of using no method. The incidence of morbidity and mortality related to unintended pregnancies, live births, abortions, upper genital tract infections, tubal infertility, cardiovascular disease and reproductive cancers were estimated for hypothetical cohorts of 100,000 women aged 15-44. Women who never use any method and who never have an abortion would have an average of 18 births during their reproductive lifetime, compared with no more than five among women using any of the available birth control methods. Consequently, use of any method prevents more deaths from pregnancy and childbirth than are associated with method use. The proportion of women who would become infertile--estimated by taking into account the likelihood of developing upper genital tract infections and the probability that any pregnancies that occurred would be ectopic--is reduced substantially if women at low risk of sexually transmitted diseases use any method and if women at high risk use oral contraceptives or barrier and spermicide methods. Oral contraceptive use has a relatively small, independent effect on the risk of cardiovascular diseases, but it greatly augments that risk in combination with smoking and increased age. When ovarian, endometrial and breast cancers are considered together, there will be approximately 110 fewer diagnoses of these three cancers per 100,000 ever-users of the pill aged 15-54 than among 100,000 never-users; furthermore, prior to age 45, 100,000 ever-users will experience 10 fewer deaths from ovarian or endometrial cancers than never-users of the pill.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)