BACKGROUND: In mid-June 2009 the State of Victoria in Australia appeared to have the highest notification rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza in the world. We hypothesise that this was because community transmission of pandemic influenza was already well established in Victoria at the time testing for the novel virus commenced. In contrast, this was not true for the pandemic in other parts of Australia, including Western Australia (WA). METHODS: We used data from detailed case follow-up of patients with confirmed infection in Victoria and WA to demonstrate the difference in the pandemic curve in two Australian states on opposite sides of the continent. We modelled the pandemic in both states, using a susceptible-infected-removed model with Bayesian inference accounting for imported cases. RESULTS: Epidemic transmission occurred earlier in Victoria and later in WA. Only 5% of the first 100 Victorian cases were not locally acquired and three of these were brothers in one family. By contrast, 53% of the first 102 cases in WA were associated with importation from Victoria. Using plausible model input data, estimation of the effective reproductive number for the Victorian epidemic required us to invoke an earlier date for commencement of transmission to explain the observed data. This was not required in modelling the epidemic in WA. CONCLUSION: Strong circumstantial evidence, supported by modelling, suggests community transmission of pandemic influenza was well established in Victoria, but not in WA, at the time testing for the novel virus commenced in Australia. The virus is likely to have entered Victoria and already become established around the time it was first identified in the US and Mexico.
BACKGROUND: In mid-June 2009 the State of Victoria in Australia appeared to have the highest notification rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza in the world. We hypothesise that this was because community transmission of pandemic influenza was already well established in Victoria at the time testing for the novel virus commenced. In contrast, this was not true for the pandemic in other parts of Australia, including Western Australia (WA). METHODS: We used data from detailed case follow-up of patients with confirmed infection in Victoria and WA to demonstrate the difference in the pandemic curve in two Australian states on opposite sides of the continent. We modelled the pandemic in both states, using a susceptible-infected-removed model with Bayesian inference accounting for imported cases. RESULTS: Epidemic transmission occurred earlier in Victoria and later in WA. Only 5% of the first 100 Victorian cases were not locally acquired and three of these were brothers in one family. By contrast, 53% of the first 102 cases in WA were associated with importation from Victoria. Using plausible model input data, estimation of the effective reproductive number for the Victorian epidemic required us to invoke an earlier date for commencement of transmission to explain the observed data. This was not required in modelling the epidemic in WA. CONCLUSION: Strong circumstantial evidence, supported by modelling, suggests community transmission of pandemic influenza was well established in Victoria, but not in WA, at the time testing for the novel virus commenced in Australia. The virus is likely to have entered Victoria and already become established around the time it was first identified in the US and Mexico.
Authors: E Pedroni; M Garcia; V Espinola; A Guerrero; C Gonzalez; A Olea; M Calvo; B Martorell; M Winkler; Mv Carrasco; Ja Vergara; J Ulloa; Am Carrazana; O Mujica; Je Villarroel; M Labrana; M Vargas; P Gonzalez; L Caceres; Cg Zamorano; R Momberg; G Munoz; J Rocco; V Bosque; A Gallardo; J Elgueta; J Vega Journal: Euro Surveill Date: 2010-01-07
Authors: Fatimah S Dawood; Seema Jain; Lyn Finelli; Michael W Shaw; Stephen Lindstrom; Rebecca J Garten; Larisa V Gubareva; Xiyan Xu; Carolyn B Bridges; Timothy M Uyeki Journal: N Engl J Med Date: 2009-05-07 Impact factor: 91.245
Authors: Caroline van Gemert; Margaret Hellard; Emma S McBryde; James Fielding; Tim Spelman; Nasra Higgins; Rosemary Lester; Hassan Vally; Isabel Bergeri Journal: Emerg Infect Dis Date: 2011-09 Impact factor: 6.883
Authors: James E Fielding; Isabel Bergeri; Nasra Higgins; Heath A Kelly; Julian Meagher; Emma S McBryde; Rodney Moran; Margaret E Hellard; Rosemary A Lester Journal: PLoS One Date: 2013-02-26 Impact factor: 3.240
Authors: Hervé Pascalis; Sarah Temmam; David A Wilkinson; Najla Dsouli; Magali Turpin; Xavier de Lamballerie; Koussay Dellagi Journal: PLoS One Date: 2012-08-27 Impact factor: 3.240