Increasing water temperature and disease risks in aquatic systems: climate change increases the risk of some, but not all, diseases.

Global warming may impose severe risks for aquatic animal health if increasing water temperature leads to an increase in the incidence of parasitic diseases. Essentially, this could take place through a temperature-driven effect on the epidemiology of the disease. For example, higher temperature may boost the rate of disease spread through positive effects on parasite fitness in a weakened host. Increased temperature may also lengthen the transmission season leading to higher total prevalence of infection and more widespread epidemics. However, to date, general understanding of these relationships is limited due to scarcity of long-term empirical data. Here, we present one of the first long-term multi-pathogen data sets on the occurrence of pathogenic bacterial and parasitic infections in relation to increasing temperatures in aquatic systems. We analyse a time-series of disease dynamics on two fish farms in northern Finland from 1986 to 2006. We first demonstrate that the annual mean water temperature increased significantly on both farms over the study period and that the increase was most pronounced in the late summer (July-September). Second, we show that the prevalence of infection (i.e. proportion of fish tanks infected each year) increased with temperature. Interestingly, this pattern was observed in some of the diseases (Ichthyophthirius multifiliis, Flavobacterium columnare), whereas in the other diseases, the pattern was the opposite (Ichthyobodo necator) or absent (Chilodonella spp.). These results demonstrate the effect of increasing water temperature on aquatic disease dynamics, but also emphasise the importance of the biology of each disease, as well as the role of local conditions, in determining the direction and magnitude of these effects.