Capacity of endogenous sex steroids to predict bone loss in Japanese men: 10-year follow-up of the Taiji Cohort Study.

This prospective cohort study aimed to evaluate the capacity of endogenous sex steroids to predict male osteoporosis (OP) among community-dwelling inhabitants. Among 1,028 male residents aged 40-79 years, 50 men belonging to each age stratum (200 in total) were randomly selected from a resident registration list. In the years 1993, 1996, 2000, and 2003, bone mineral density (BMD) of the lumbar spine and proximal femur was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Serum total estradiol (E(2)) and free testosterone (FT) were measured using samples extracted in 1993. Among the 200 participants at baseline, 153 subjects completed 10-year follow-ups. Mean values of serum E(2) and FT were 22.4 and 9.4 pg/ml, respectively. Rates of change for BMD at the lumbar spine and femoral neck were 0.8% and 0.5% during the first 3 years, 0.0% and 0.5% during 7 years, and 0.8% and -0.3% over 10 years, respectively. According to multivariate regression analysis after adjusting for age and body mass index, mean values of FT were significantly related to the rate of change of BMD at the femoral neck at 3 years (beta = 0.21; r (2) = 0.05; P < 0.01), but not at 7 or 10 years. Serum FT level could offer a useful predictor of bone loss within 3 years.