Failed development and vulnerability to climate change in central Asia: implications for food security and health.

This article presents results of research undertaken to identify factors that affect the vulnerability of rural Mongolian herders to climate change. Findings suggest that models of market development instituted since 1990 have failed to recognize and support key elements of the pastoralist adaptive strategy. A retreating state presence has led to the collapse of regulatory regimes needed to safeguard critical common resources. This in turn has produced considerable social differentiation in the countryside, a breakdown in cooperative institutions, and conflicts over water and pasture. In a context of climate change, these changes seriously threaten the sustainability of the rural economy, leading to livelihood insecurity, growing rural poverty, and increasing rates of migration to shantytowns surrounding the capital city of Ulaanbaatar. The newly vulnerable poor are at higher risk for poor health and malnutrition.